A 1,323-pound spacecraft is set to re-enter Earth’s atmosphere on Tuesday night, according to NASA. The U.S. Space Force has predicted that the satellite will make its descent at approximately 7:45 p.m. EDT on March 10, 2026, with a 24-hour window of uncertainty for its landing.
While NASA anticipates most of the spacecraft will burn up during re-entry, there are expectations that some components will survive. Despite the potential dangers, NASA states that the risk of harm to individuals on Earth is low, estimated at about 1 in 4,200. This calculation considers the fact that most of the Earth's surface is covered by water, making it more likely for any surviving debris to land in the ocean rather than on land.
The spacecraft in question is the Van Allen Probe A, which along with its twin, Van Allen Probe B, spent years gathering data on Earth's radiation belts. These belts, which are rings of charged particles trapped by the planet's magnetic field, serve as a protective barrier against cosmic radiation and solar storms. The probes were initially intended for a two-year mission but extended their operations for nearly seven years before running out of fuel.
Originally projected to re-enter the atmosphere in 2034, the accelerated return of the spacecraft is attributed to the heightened solar activity during the current solar cycle. The increased atmospheric drag caused by intense space weather events prompted an earlier-than-expected re-entry. Despite this early return, NASA emphasizes the significance of the data collected by the Van Allen Probes, which has contributed to improving forecasts of space weather events and their potential impacts on satellites, astronauts, and Earth's systems.
While Van Allen Probe A is on its way back to Earth, Van Allen Probe B is not expected to re-enter the atmosphere until 2030.
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